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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."