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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.